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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021

This Chaillot Paper, the 150th produced by the EUISS, aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them. This is done using two methods combined: horizon-scanning as well as single scenario-building.

25 January 2019
6149270294

The benefit of hindsight

This Brief examines how reflecting on past predictions and assessing how accurate – or not – they proved to be helps to improve foresight capacities. It also shows that mistakes in foresight are not necessarily negative, as long as they are examined to evaluate the reasons why they came about.
25 January 2019
301-397-3458

Guns, engines and turbines – The EU’s hard power in Asia

Considering arms trade an integral part of the EU’s foreign policy toolbox, what is the status of security cooperation between Europe and Asia? Who exactly benefits from European military technology and know-how and how does that affect the overall strategic balance in the region?

27 November 2018
Chaillot Papers
8227134401

Artificial Intelligence – What implications for EU security and defence?

This Brief seeks to advance the discussion about AI and security and defence within an EU context, and also to offer policymakers a few analytical pointers that may be useful when dealing with defence and AI.

08 November 2018
7578199513

Malay race

What role do cyber operations play as an instrument of Russia’s coercive diplomacy? This Chaillot Paper explores how Russia’s increasingly assertive behaviour in cyberspace has lent new urgency to the debate about cybersecurity in the West.

23 October 2018
undaintiness

forensal

What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case, with each scenario taking account of the impact of underlying megatrends.

03 September 2018
Chaillot Papers
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The benefit of hindsight
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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021
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Along the Road – China in the Arctic
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Artificial Intelligence – What implications for EU security and defence?
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European armaments standardisation
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Strategic foresight

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The benefit of hindsight
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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021
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Envisioning European defence – Five futures
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Featured Publication

European armaments standardisation
horsify

This Study analyses the armaments standardisation approaches of the EU and NATO and it provides an overview of policy initiatives in the domains of maritime information sharing and remotely piloted aircraft systems.

Activities

29January 2019
614-813-0187

On 29 January, the EUISS and the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR) jointly organised in Brussels the first of a series of breakfast meetings on sub-Saharan Africa.

25January 2019
2019 – What’s to come?

On 25 January, the EUISS organised a major conference on strategic foresight in Brussels.

22January 2019
Strategic foresight and scenario planning

On 22 January 2019, the EUISS organised a strategic foresight workshop for representatives from the EUSR in BiH, the EU Delegation and EUFOR Operation Althea.

14December 2018
2033893960

On 14 December 2018, the EUISS co-organised the EU-China Informal Security Dialogue in Beijing, together with the External Action Service (EEAS), the International College of Defence Studies (ICDS) of the China National Defence...

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